The World Trade Organisation has reported that global goods trade remained stable in the final quarter of 2024, with signs of continued growth into early 2025.
According to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, the index, which provides real-time insights into merchandise trade trends, inched up to 102.8 in December from 102.7, indicating that trade volumes remained above trend.
Despite this positive momentum, the WTO warned that growing trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of new tariffs could disrupt stability in the coming months.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator tracking global trade momentum. A reading above 100 suggests above-trend trade growth, while a figure below 100 signals weaker-than-expected performance. The latest figure of 102.8 suggests a sustained trade recovery following the downturn of 2023.
However, economists caution that businesses may have temporarily increased imports in anticipation of policy shifts, potentially dampening demand later in the year.
The WTO also reported that world merchandise trade volumes expanded by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, supporting its earlier forecast of 2.7 per cent growth for the full year.
While overall trade remained resilient, regional disparities were evident. European trade underperformed expectations, with both exports and imports remaining weak. In contrast, North American imports and Asian exports exceeded predictions, reflecting stronger demand dynamics in these regions.
“The overall resilience of global trade is tempered by risks tied to escalating trade tensions. Talks of new tariffs and protectionist measures, particularly among major economies, could disrupt supply chains and weigh on trade performance in the second half of 2025,” the WTO stated.
The organisation is set to release its next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in April, providing further insights into evolving trade dynamics.
The WTO highlighted that all six component indices of the Goods Trade Barometer remained on or above trend. Automotive products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) showed the strongest performance, indicating robust demand in these sectors. Meanwhile, indices for export orders (101.0), electronic components (102.3), and raw materials (101.6) remained closer to the baseline.
“Export orders, a key predictor of future trade trends, hovered near 100, underscoring the importance of monitoring potential shifts in global demand,” the report stated.
The WTO further noted that if policy uncertainty escalates or economic conditions deteriorate, a decline in export orders could signal an impending trade slowdown.
While early 2025 data suggests global trade remains on a recovery path, underlying risks pose significant challenges in the months ahead.
“Rising geopolitical tensions, potential trade policy shifts, and uncertain economic conditions could reshape the trajectory of global commerce,” the WTO added.
“As businesses and policymakers navigate this uncertain landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether global trade continues its steady expansion or faces renewed headwinds.”
