The global oil demand is anticipated to continue increasing in the upcoming years before gradually declining starting in 2045.
The Times reported that this is supported by the World Oil Outlook 2045, which the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries released on Monday, October 9 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The Outlook predicts that by 2025, the world’s oil demand will skyrocket and reach 96.4 mboe/d, an increase of 5.8 mboe/d from 2022 to 2025.
Primary oil demand is anticipated to increase by a significant 15.4 mboe/d from 90.7 mboe/d in 2022 to 102 mboe/d in 2030 and ultimately to 106.1 mboe/d in 2045.
The Outlook also highlighted how, despite the fact that the combined growth of solar, wind, and natural gas across various regions will somewhat overshadow the anticipated overall increase in oil demand, the substantial existing demand for oil will ensure that it remains the main contributor to global energy needs throughout the forecasted period.
In actuality, oil accounted for about 31% of the world’s energy needs in 2022. Its share of the energy mix is anticipated to slightly increase to close to 32% by 2035 before gradually decreasing to 29.5% by 2045.
However, it will continue to be the greatest individual component of the world’s energy mix in 2045, surpassing natural gas’s share by more than 5 percentage points and being over three times larger than the combined contribution of solar and wind energy.
The large population growth and solid economic expansion that are being experienced by the majority of emerging countries are two of the primary driving forces behind this trend, according to the Outlook.
The Outlook predicts that India and the “Other Developing countries” group will have the largest growth in primary oil demand, with anticipated increases of 9.5 mboe/d and 6.5 mboe/d, respectively.
Member countries with strong growth anticipated particularly in the early part of the forecast period, followed by a decrease after 2035. Nevertheless, it is predicted that over the forecast period, overall demand growth in OPEC Member Countries will exceed 4 mboe/d.
According to the Outlook, significant demand growth is also anticipated to extend past the first few years of the forecast period. Between 2025 and 2030, there will be an increase in global oil consumption of 5.5 mboe/d.
The second half of the forecast period is predicted to see a little reduction in this incremental demand, although it is still anticipated to be more than 2 mboe/d during the 2030–2035 period and to remain in the range of 1 mboe/d over the final two five-year periods.
On the other hand, Outlook claimed that a number of variables contribute to a slowing of long-term oil demand growth. The principal ones include using biofuels to replace oil, electricity and natural gas, Increased use of electric vehiclesfor transportation on roads, efficiency improvements across all sectors of oil consumption, shifts towards less energy/oil-intensive components in the composition of future Gross Domestic Product and decelerating long-term population growth.
