A new study by the Global System for Mobile Communications Association, the mobile industry’s global trade body, projects that sixth-generation mobile technology will surpass five billion connections worldwide by 2040.

The transition, however, is expected to be gradual, with 4G and 5G continuing to support global connectivity for many years.

GSMA’s Vision 2040 report on spectrum requirements anticipates commercial 6G deployment starting around 2030, with peak adoption expected between 2035 and 2040.

Despite 6G’s projected rapid growth, earlier generations of mobile technology will remain critical to global networks.

“4G and 5G will remain essential, with around 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still in use by 2040,” the report stated.

The study, aimed at guiding policymakers and regulators on long-term spectrum planning, indicates that 6G adoption will vary significantly across regions. Advanced markets—such as China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe, the Gulf states, Vietnam, and India—are expected to achieve or surpass full penetration. In contrast, many low- and middle-income regions may fall behind due to slower infrastructure development and limited spectrum access.

The GSMA notes that this uneven rollout will make existing networks essential for meeting connectivity demands, especially in regions where the shift to newer technologies is likely to be slower.

The report highlights that future spectrum demand will be driven less by raw download speeds and more by emerging 6G-enabled use cases, including AI-driven services, immersive communications, and digital twins.

These applications will require ultra-low latency of 10 milliseconds or less, along with wider spectrum channels to minimize congestion and transmission delays. Mobile traffic growth will also be influenced by evolving user behavior.

The GSMA noted that currently, around 10 per cent of mobile users generate 60–70 per cent of total network traffic.

By 2040, the report predicts this level of consumption will become the norm as younger, digitally intensive generations grow older.

Geography is also expected to shape future spectrum requirements. An analysis of 10 countries found that about 83% of mobile traffic occurs in urban areas, even though cities make up only around 5 per cent of total land area.

In highly dense urban locations, traffic density can be nine times higher than in other urban areas and nearly 700 times higher than in rural regions, increasing the risk of congestion without additional spectrum.

The GSMA emphasized that these pressures underscore the need for forward-looking spectrum policies as governments prepare for critical global decisions at the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference, which is set to guide the harmonization of new spectrum bands to support mobile network evolution into the 2030s.