The Federal Executive Council has given its approval to the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework.

This comprehensive document outlines Nigeria’s key economic assumptions, projected revenue outlook, and planned spending priorities for the upcoming three-year period.

The Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, provided details to journalists following the council meeting on Wednesday, which was chaired by President Bola Tinubu. He confirmed that his ministry and the budget office of the federation collaborated on the preparation of the MTEF document.

Bagudu announced that the council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for the year 2026, though the government’s fiscal planning would be based on a more conservative figure of 1.8 million bpd.

The established oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, and the exchange rate assumption for the plan is ₦1,512/$. The Minister also noted that the inflation rate is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.

The Minister further elaborated on the exchange rate assumption, noting that the outlook “reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year.” He also added that the assumptions outlined in the MTEF followed a rigorous process of macroeconomic and fiscal modelling carried out by the budget office in collaboration with partner agencies.

Based on the adopted benchmarks, the total estimated federation revenue for 2026 is ₦50.74 trillion. The distribution of this revenue is projected as follows: the federal government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states are projected to receive ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments are projected to receive ₦11.85 trillion.

The Minister provided a consolidated view of the Federal Government’s financial outlook, stating: “When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total federal government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion — a decline of ₦6.55 trillion or 16 percent from the 2025 budget estimate.”

Regarding expenditure, Statutory transfers are anticipated to total approximately ₦3 trillion. The critical projection for debt servicing is ₦10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure—which encompasses personnel costs and overheads—is projected to be ₦15.27 trillion. Consequently, the fiscal deficit for 2026 is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, which is equivalent to 3.61 percent of GDP.

The MTEF also includes forecasts for economic growth, projecting a nominal GDP of over ₦690 trillion in 2026, which is expected to rise to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028. The GDP growth rate is projected at 4.6 percent in 2026. Non-oil GDP is forecasted to expand from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is projected to increase from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion over the same period.

Bagudu conveyed President Tinubu’s optimism concerning the new framework, stating that the President “is confident that consolidating macroeconomic stability, sustaining current reforms and implementing the MTEF faithfully will place the economy on a stronger growth trajectory.”

In addition to the MTEF, the FEC also reviewed various submissions from ministries before formally approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling. The MFTEC is designed to strategically manage public spending and enhance fiscal discipline across government operations.