The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission said it has identified patterns of price manipulation by some domestic airlines during the December 2025 festive season, heightening concerns about consumer exploitation and competition in Nigeria’s aviation sector.

In an interim review released on Thursday, the commission said the findings followed an industry-wide investigation launched in January by its Department of Surveillance and Investigations.

According to the report, preliminary analysis of data from local airlines showed that ticket fares during the December festive peak were markedly higher than post-peak levels in January 2026, despite relative stability in key cost drivers such as aviation fuel, government taxes and foreign exchange.

In a statement signed by its Director of Corporate Affairs, Ondaje Ijagwu, the commission said the forensic review compared domestic pricing trends during the December rush with fares recorded afterward.

It added that the disparities in ticket prices appeared to stem from airlines’ discretionary pricing decisions rather than external cost pressures.

The statement read in part, “A review undertaken by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has uncovered patterns of price manipulation perpetrated by some local airlines during the last festive season.

“The forensic exercise benefited from data collated by the commission from airlines operating local routes in the country. The report compares domestic airline pricing from the December 2025 festive period with post-peak January 2026 fare levels.

“Preliminary analysis indicates that fares recorded during the December peak were materially higher than those observed in the post-peak period across several routes, despite relative stability in critical operating variables like fuel price, government taxes, and foreign exchange.

“The differences observed in fares therefore appear to reflect airlines’ arbitrary pricing decisions, including yield management and capacity allocation, rather than any variation in regulatory fees.”

The commission said route-level analysis showed that fare hikes aligned with periods of reduced seat availability during predictable seasonal demand spikes, suggesting possible deliberate supply constraints.

It added that on high-density routes, peak fares were frequently clustered within narrow bands across multiple operators — a pattern that could point to coordinated behaviour.

The commission further noted that median fares across sampled routes surged during the festive window compared with January benchmarks. However, it acknowledged that seasonal demand, fleet utilisation and scheduling constraints may also influence pricing during peak travel periods, adding that “these factors remain under consideration as part of the commission’s ongoing review.”

Commenting on the findings, the Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, Tunji Bello, said the exercise aligns with the agency’s mandate to promote competition and protect consumers.

“This assessment is intended to provide clarity on pricing behaviour during predictable peak travel periods. The commission’s role is not to disrupt legitimate commercial activity, but to ensure that market outcomes remain consistent with competition and consumer protection principles under the law,” Bello said.

He emphasized that the report is interim and that the commission will carry out more detailed structural and route-level analyses before taking any regulatory action.

“It is important to emphasise that this is an interim report. Our next action will be dictated by the full facts established at the end of the review exercise. Then, the Commission will decide whether any regulatory guidance, engagement, or enforcement steps are necessary, strictly in accordance with the law,” he added.

The report flagged potential breaches of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act 2018, including provisions on anti-competitive agreements, abuse of dominance, price-fixing, and unfair contract terms.

The commission noted that the relevant sections prohibit practices such as restraining competition, abusing a dominant market position, engaging in conspiracies, and conducting unfair or unjust dealings with consumers.