ExxonMobil has cautioned that the global energy sector’s net zero ambitions are likely to be delayed past 2050, citing consumer resistance to high energy costs and a resurgence in coal demand, the world’s most carbon-intensive fuel.

In its Global Energy Outlook released Thursday, the oil giant projected that global emissions will decline by just 25% by 2050, far below the more than two-thirds reduction needed to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change targets, according to Bloomberg.

The forecast marks nearly a 4 per cent increase over Exxon’s outlook last year, driven by greater coal usage to support intermittent wind and solar power and slower adoption of electric vehicles in the US and Europe, which continues to sustain oil demand.

“If the world tries to shove in some of these more expensive sources too fast, there will be a reaction from consumers,” Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economic, energy and strategy planning, said on a call with reporters. “In democratic societies where there are elections, elections have consequences. We can see political changes that then can slow progress.”

The United States largest oil company has long signaled a continued role for fossil fuels, asserting that global net zero targets are unlikely to be met by 2050.

In recent months, ExxonMobil has become increasingly vocal against decarbonization policies, particularly in Europe, arguing they drive up the cost of energy supply.

The company’s projections have drawn criticism from climate activists, who say scenarios showing sustained high fossil fuel use could slow global climate action.

They warn such trends would contribute to more severe heatwaves and wildfires, heavier rainfall, and rising sea levels.

ExxonMobil forecasts that oil demand will peak around 2030 before plateauing, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050. By comparison, the International Energy Agency projects oil demand will reach 104.4 million barrels per day in 2026, with growth slowing from historic levels.

Coal consumption, the largest shift in this year’s Energy Outlook, is projected to reach a record 8.8 billion tons in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.

Despite global commitments to phase out coal, ExxonMobil expects it will still comprise 14% of the world’s energy mix by 2050, citing its reliability in generating electricity when wind and solar power are intermittent.

“We’re seeing the world use more coal into power generation and it’s a story of sinking power generation efficiency as coal plants are having to cycle to balance renewables,” Birdsall said.