The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has urged the federal government not to misinterpret the recently rebased Gross Domestic Product figures as a sign of significant economic advancement, warning that the data may conceal deeper structural issues within the economy.
Reacting to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest rebasing exercise, MAN noted that while nominal GDP showed an 18.3% year-on-year increase, real GDP growth averaged just 1.95% between 2020 and 2024 — a performance the association described as weak and unreflective of true economic progress.
The Director General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said in a statement to THISDAY that the decline in manufacturing’s contribution to GDP — from 27.65% in 2010 to 21.08% in 2019 — underscores the urgent need for structural reforms in Nigeria’s industrial sector.
He added that although the rebasing indicates statistical growth and a larger economy on paper, it has done little to enhance productivity or industrialisation, reiterating that Nigeria’s economic fundamentals remain fragile without a robust manufacturing base.
He said, “The revised nominal GDP estimate, showing an 18.3 per cent year-on-year increase, is a direct outcome of improved data capture, especially in agriculture, services and informal sector activities. Notwithstanding, MAN strongly cautions against interpreting this nominal expansion as evidence of significant economic progress.
“MAN, therefore, calls on the government to treat the rebased GDP not as a celebration of growth, but as a strident call for structural industrial reforms,” adding that “Nigeria must re-industrialise to achieve inclusive growth, build export capacity, and reduce dependence on primary commodities and informal activities.”
MAN therefore urged the federal government to place greater emphasis on manufacturing policies, improved access to financing, and infrastructure development, warning that GDP growth without a solid industrial foundation risks becoming a “hollow statistic” lacking real economic impact.
Ajayi-Kadir emphasized that despite the upward revision in GDP, real economic growth remained sluggish, averaging only 1.95 percent between 2020 and 2024.
“This sluggish real growth shows the underlying fragility of Nigeria’s productive base and the capacity of the economy to deliver sustainable and inclusive development,” he added.
He also voiced MAN’s concern over the declining role of the industrial sector, a trend that the rebased GDP figures have brought into sharper focus.
He said, “Industry’s share of GDP fell from 27.65 per cent in the 2010 base year to 21.08 per cent under the 2019 rebased structure, marking a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities.
“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly the manufacturing sector that should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation.
“Manufacturing is structurally weak, with sub-sectors that should be growth drivers performing below potential, as indicated in the report. Based on the figure released, the average annual growth rate of the manufacturing sector between 2019 and 2024 is negative (-0.76 per cent).
“This means that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been shrinking in real terms over the past five years.”
