China’s exports recorded a sharp 12.4 percent rise in March, far exceeding analysts’ forecasts, as businesses rushed to ship goods before a fresh round of United States tariffs came into force.
The spike in outbound trade was described by economists as a frontloading effort to beat the April 2 deadline for new duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who branded the day “Liberation Day.”
The escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have seen U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods climb as high as 145 percent. China has responded with retaliatory duties of up to 125 percent on American imports, intensifying the tit-for-tat conflict that continues to rattle global markets.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs revealed that the March export figures more than doubled Bloomberg’s forecast of 4.6 percent. In contrast, imports fell 4.3 percent, a softer contraction compared to previous months and an encouraging sign of tentative domestic recovery.
Despite mounting trade barriers, the United States remained China’s largest export destination in the first quarter, with exports totaling $115.6 billion from January to March. In March alone, shipments to the U.S. climbed nine percent compared to the same period last year, even as the second wave of tariffs took effect.
China has set an annual growth target of around five percent, with leadership pledging to rely more heavily on domestic consumption. However, the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. continues to pose a serious challenge to that strategy.
There was a slight reprieve last Friday when Washington temporarily exempted key electronics—such as smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors—from the latest tariffs. These products represent a major portion of China’s high-tech exports.
Analysts widely attribute the March export boom to businesses frontloading shipments before the new tariffs hit.
“The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced,” said Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “China’s exports will likely weaken in the coming months as the US tariffs skyrocket.”
Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics echoed this, stating: “In anticipation of even higher duties, demand from U.S. importers continued to hold up fairly well in March. But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters.”
He warned that it could take years for Chinese exports to return to current levels.
Beyond trade tensions, China’s broader economy remains under pressure. Consumer spending remains sluggish, and the heavily indebted property sector continues to cast a long shadow.
Last year, policymakers responded with a mix of interest rate cuts, eased property rules, and expanded borrowing limits for local governments. But optimism faded when Beijing held off on delivering a large-scale stimulus package.
