The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected that petrol prices will hover around N950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook.
In its forecast for the domestic economy, the CBN outlined baseline projections based on assumptions such as an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, alongside an average exchange rate of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026.
The bank noted that this exchange rate projection assumes a more efficient foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and broad-based improvements in economic activity.
The CBN noted that domestic crude oil production is projected to remain at about 1.5 million barrels per day during the forecast period, with premium motor spirit expected to sell at around N950 per litre, higher than current pump prices.
“The baseline projections are predicated on the following assumptions: crude oil price at an average of $60/barrel in Q4 2025 and $55/barrel in 2026 (consistent with the US EIA’s outlook that rising global crude oil inventories and supply glut would moderate prices); NFEM exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient FX market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).
“Furthermore, domestic crude oil production is assumed at about 1.5 mbpd (excluding condensates) throughout the forecast period. PMS price is expected to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. Government expenditure is projected to follow the 2025-2027 MTEF/FSP path, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the $1tn economy initiative. MPR and CRR are assumed at 27.00 and 45.00 per cent, respectively. The baseline projections were generally supported by the assumption of continued improvement in business optimism and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN said.
It was earlier reported
that petrol was selling at around N900 per litre and above, before the Dangote Refinery reduced gantry rates from N828 to N699 per litre in December.
Following this adjustment, the refinery, through its partner MRS Oil, set a pump price of N739 per litre. As MRS filling stations began selling petrol at this rate in mid-December, other stations were compelled to lower their prices to remain competitive.
The Dangote Refinery has consistently reduced petrol prices since beginning operations in 2024, often at significant losses to both the refinery and fuel importers.
On Monday, the refinery cautioned that petrol pump prices could soar to as much as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria depended entirely on fuel imports, emphasizing that large-scale domestic refining has become a crucial stabilizing force in the downstream petroleum sector.
The refinery said, “Recent price movements further highlight an uncomfortable reality. In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint, with petrol prices potentially escalating to levels estimated at up to N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment. The refinery’s operations have therefore served as a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market.”
In its outlook, the CBN noted that increased private-sector investments, particularly by the Dangote Refinery, are expected to further strengthen the growth prospects for 2026. The bank also indicated that petrol prices could ease due to heightened competition among midstream traders.
It added, “Increased crude oil production, underpinned by improved security around oil assets, especially with the launch of the production monitoring command centre and expansion of domestic crude oil refining, and stable energy prices are expected to drive growth further in 2026.”
Additionally, the CBN expressed optimism that headline inflation is projected to slow to 12.94 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025.
“The anticipated moderation would be driven by declining food and PMS prices. The expected deceleration in PMS prices would be driven by the increasing competition within the midstream segment of the oil industry,” it was stated.
