Leaders of the BRICS bloc will gather in Rio de Janeiro from Sunday, aiming to present a unified front against U.S. trade protectionism. However, internal rifts—especially over the crisis in the Middle East—threaten to overshadow the summit.

BRICS, which now includes 11 nations and accounts for nearly half of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP, is expected to challenge the United States’ recent tariff threats. A joint statement denouncing destabilizing trade practices is being prepared—though sources say it will avoid direct mention of the U.S. or former President Donald Trump.

“Expect cautious language. No one wants to provoke Washington, especially not China,” said Marta Fernandez of Rio’s BRICS Policy Center, noting Beijing’s recent tariff détente with Washington.

Complicating matters further is the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping—the first since his rise to power. Analysts say his decision to skip the summit, sending Premier Li Qiang instead, may be linked to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s prominent role. “Xi likely didn’t want to be upstaged,” said Ryan Hass, a fellow at Brookings.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, under international indictment, will attend virtually. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, grappling with recent conflict with Israel, is also absent. Iran’s push for stronger language supporting Palestine has exposed fault lines within BRICS, with members split over how forcefully to address the Gaza conflict.

Despite tensions, host President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains determined to use the summit to elevate Brazil’s global influence. In just a year, Brazil will host the G20, BRICS, and COP30.

Beyond politics, the summit will explore cooperation in artificial intelligence and global health. While expansion has boosted BRICS’ global profile, it has also made consensus harder to reach. Still, Brazilian officials remain hopeful for unity.