The International Air Transport Association has said that the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels is expected to triple to 1.9 billion liters in 2024.
This would cover 0.53% of the fuel required by aircraft in 2024. Governments could implement several policy initiatives to speed up the usage of SAF.
The Director General of IATA, Willie Walsh said “SAF will provide about 65 percent of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. So the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus.”
Several industries including SAF share the vision of renewable fuels production. total renewable fuel production capacity could reach 51 million tonnes by 2030, with production capacity spread across almost all regions. The Potential for producing renewable fuels may surpass this estimate as investor interest in SAF increases.
Governments want to reduce CO2 emissions from SAF in international aviation by five percent by 2030 through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). About 27% of the projected capacity for producing renewable fuels by 2030 would need to be SAF to meet that goal. Presently, only three percent of all renewable fuels are produced via SAF.
“The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient. Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a five percent CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050. They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can purchase SAF in the required quantities,” said Willie Walsh.
There are several potential solutions to accelerate aviation’s access to critical SAF quantities:
Diversify feedstocks: It is anticipated that during the next five years, hydrogenated fatty acids (HEFA), such as leftover cooking oil and animal fats, will provide around 80% of the SAF generated. The potential for SAF production will be significantly increased by accelerating the use of additional approved channels and feedstocks, such as municipal trash and agricultural and forestry residues.
Co-processing: Up to 5% of authorized renewable feedstocks may be co-processed with crude oil streams in already-existing refineries. This is a fast-to-implement approach that can significantly increase SAF productivity. However, to provide consistent life-cycle assessments, policies need to be implemented immediately.
Incentives to improve the output mix at renewable fuel facilities: The existing facilities for renewable fuels are built to optimize the production of diesel and frequently receive subsidies in addition to the steady demand from the automotive industry. Policies should be put in place to reorient manufacturing toward the long-term requirement of air transport for SAF as road transport electrifies. With very minor adjustments needed at current stand-alone renewable fuel facilities, incentives targeted at SAF can aid in the renewable diesel-SAF conversion.
Incentives to boost investments in renewable fuel production: All renewable fuel production will need to ramp up quickly, and among those needs, a rising percentage of SAF production will require regulatory backing. The $3 billion in investments that the US Grand Challenge supports is one such well-articulated policy. The production potential of SAF in both new and current facilities would be further optimized with stable, long-term tax incentives.
Decarbonizing aviation would be aided by incentives to construct additional renewable energy plants, fortify the feedstock supply chain, and devote a larger share of the output of renewable fuels to aviation.
