Nigerian airlines sustained flight operations on Thursday despite earlier threats of an industry-wide shutdown triggered by soaring jet fuel prices, underscoring ongoing tensions in Africa’s leading crude-producing nation and most populous country.
This marks the second time within two weeks that a potential strike by airline operators has been averted. Engagements between the Federal Government and airline operators have already yielded a commitment to provide debt relief to struggling carriers, offering temporary reassurance to the aviation sector.
The surge in aviation fuel costs has been driven largely by developments in the global oil market. Crude oil prices climbed sharply after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. As a result, oil prices exceeded 126 dollars per barrel on Thursday, reaching their highest levels since 2022.
The ripple effects of these developments are being felt globally, with some European airlines already scaling back flight operations due to rising operational costs and concerns about dwindling fuel supply. Nigeria has not been immune to these pressures, even as the Dangote refinery has significantly ramped up jet fuel production, according to data from Kpler reviewed by AFP.
In spite of the warnings issued by the Airline Operators of Nigeria that flights could be halted, domestic carriers including Air Peace, Max Air and Rano Air continued operations on Thursday, as confirmed by flight tracking data examined by AFP. The Airline Operators of Nigeria did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the situation.
Air travel remains a critical mode of transportation in Nigeria, particularly as insecurity, including the activities of armed groups and kidnappers, has made long-distance road travel increasingly risky for many citizens who can afford to fly.
The Dangote refinery, a privately owned facility established by billionaire Aliko Dangote, began operations in 2024, marking a significant shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. For years prior, the oil-producing country relied heavily on imports of refined petroleum products due to the deterioration of state-owned refineries.
According to Kpler data, maritime shipments of jet fuel from the Dangote refinery reached an average of 154,000 barrels per day in April 2026, representing a record high. Approximately half of these shipments were exported to countries outside Africa, a proportion consistent with trends observed over the 12 months preceding the conflict involving Iran.
Preliminary estimates indicate that Nigeria’s share of jet fuel deliveries from the refinery has seen a slight increase, while exports to other African nations have marginally declined. However, the refinery’s operations are still tied to global market realities, as it processes both locally sourced and imported crude oil.
Jide Pratt, Nigeria country manager for petro-trading platform Tradegrid, suggested that there is potential for the Dangote refinery to ease domestic jet fuel prices. “I will assume that the priority would be to blend locally, so that there’s a price reduction, so that things like freight and international Platts (benchmark) prices don’t affect that,” Pratt told AFP. However, he noted that “they’re pricing internationally,” Pratt said.
Offering a different perspective, Clement Isong, a former executive at TotalEnergies and current Chief Executive Officer of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, emphasised the global nature of crude oil pricing. “Whether they’re buying the light sweet crude from Nigeria or they’re importing their crude, the crude oil price has gone up worldwide,” Isong told AFP.
Efforts to obtain comments from a spokesperson for the Dangote refinery were unsuccessful as of the time of reporting. Similarly, a spokesperson for the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, when contacted by AFP, dismissed claims that the government was considering a price cap on jet fuel.
Airline operators have maintained that the cost of aviation fuel has surged dramatically, claiming it has more than tripled to N3,300, equivalent to 2.40 dollars per litre. However, fuel marketers and independent analysts have challenged this assertion, estimating the current price to be closer to N2,000 per litre.
