The African Export-Import Bank projects that Africa’s rice market will expand from an estimated $24 billion in 2024 to $29.2 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent.
According to the Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin No. 1 – 2025, the bank noted that while local rice production has shown steady improvement, the continent still depends heavily on imports to meet its rapidly growing consumption demand.
Afreximbank noted that Africa’s rice production has made steady progress in recent years, with supply rising to about 39.8 million tonnes in 2022 from 36.9 million tonnes in 2018. However, this growth remains insufficient to meet the continent’s fast-expanding demand, driven by population growth and urbanisation.
“In 2024, Africa’s rice market was valued at US$24 billion, with projections to reach US$29.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a 4 per cent compound annual growth rate,” the report stated.
The report highlighted several persistent challenges hindering Africa’s drive for self-sufficiency in rice production, including poor rural infrastructure, limited access to quality seeds and mechanisation, and vulnerability to climate change effects such as droughts and floods.
These factors, it noted, have constrained productivity and reduced the competitiveness of locally produced rice compared to imports.
It further identified Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea as the continent’s leading rice importers, while noting that these countries are making concerted efforts to reverse the trend.
According to the report, efforts to strengthen Africa’s rice sector include increased investment in irrigation infrastructure, research into high-yield seed varieties, and the adoption of modern farming techniques. In Nigeria, government-led programmes such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, along with private-sector investments in integrated rice mills, have improved domestic production—though output still falls short of total demand.
Despite these initiatives, Africa remains a net importer of rice, with imports making up about 40 per cent of total consumption.
The continent continues to rely heavily on key exporters such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam to bridge supply gaps, leaving it vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.
Afreximbank observed that growing demand for rice is driven by rapid urbanization and shifting dietary preferences toward convenient, easy-to-prepare staple foods.
The bank further noted that regional integration under the AfCFTA could enhance intra-African trade in both paddy and processed rice by lowering transport costs and promoting cross-border agricultural collaboration.
Afreximbank’s projection that Africa’s rice market will reach $29.2 billion by 2030 holds significant implications for the continent’s food security, trade policy, and agricultural investment landscape.
With the market expected to expand by more than $5 billion in the coming years, it presents a strong opportunity for private investors, agritech companies, and development finance institutions to scale their participation and drive growth across the rice value chain.
