Nigeria’s merchandise exports to China fell by ₦601.82bn in the second quarter of 2026.
This happened despite Beijing’s decision to grant Nigerian products zero-tariff access to its market from May 1, and it worsened the trade imbalance between the two countries.
An analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics foreign trade reports for Q2 of 2025 and 2026 showed that Nigeria’s exports to China declined by 54.30 per cent, from ₦1.108tn to ₦506.57bn.
The decline occurred even as Nigeria’s imports from China rose by ₦955.58bn, or 19.26 per cent, from ₦4.96tn to ₦5.92tn over the same period.
As a result, Nigeria’s merchandise trade deficit with China widened by ₦1.56tn, or 40.43 per cent. It rose from ₦3.85tn in Q2 of 2025 to ₦5.41tn in the corresponding period of 2026.
The findings, based on The PUNCH’s analysis of the NBS trade statistics, indicate that Nigeria continued to buy substantially more goods from China than it sold to the Asian economic powerhouse. This held despite the preferential market access.
The imbalance meant that for every ₦1 worth of goods Nigeria exported to China in Q2, it imported about ₦11.68 worth of Chinese products. A year earlier, the figure was ₦4.48.
China remained Nigeria’s largest source of imports. It accounted for 41.02 per cent of the country’s total import bill of ₦14.42tn during the quarter, up from 32.45 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
The export contraction was particularly significant because Nigeria’s overall exports increased by 18.77 per cent, from ₦22.75tn to ₦27.02tn. Exports to Asia also rose by 17.55 per cent, from ₦7.42tn to ₦8.72tn.
China’s share of Nigeria’s exports to Asia consequently fell from 14.93 per cent to 5.81 per cent, a decline of 9.13 percentage points.
Its share of Nigeria’s total exports also dropped from 4.87 per cent to 1.87 per cent. This indicates that the Chinese market contributed substantially less to Nigeria’s export earnings despite the broader expansion in international trade.
India, meanwhile, strengthened its position as Nigeria’s leading Asian export destination. Shipments to India rose by 65.95 per cent, from ₦1.98tn to ₦3.29tn. This suggests that the decline in exports to China was not part of a general contraction in Nigeria’s trade with Asian markets.
Quarter-on-quarter figures also showed that exports to China declined by 12.99 per cent, from ₦582.20bn in Q1 of 2026 to ₦506.57bn in Q2. The latter period included the first two months of the zero-tariff arrangement.
The tariff concession, however, took effect only on May 1, so April exports preceded its implementation. The quarterly figures therefore cannot establish whether shipments increased or declined specifically during the two months of preferential access.
The trade statistics also measure the naira value of merchandise exports rather than export volumes. It is therefore impossible to determine from the aggregate figures alone how much of the decline reflected changes in commodity prices, quantities or product composition.
China formally extended zero-tariff treatment to Nigeria and 19 other African countries on May 1, 2026, under an arrangement scheduled to run until April 30, 2028.
The decision expanded an earlier concession covering 33 African least developed countries, bringing the total number of African beneficiaries to 53.
Under the policy, qualifying Nigerian products enjoy duty-free entry into China, subject to customs requirements, rules of origin and applicable tariff quotas.
The Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, announced the arrangement in Abuja in March. He said, “On March 26th, China and Nigeria signed the framework agreement on economic partnership for shared development. So, we are now working together to ensure the zero-tariff policy takes effect on May 1st. That means starting from May 1st of this year, all Nigerian products, 100 per cent, will enjoy zero tariff when exported to China.”
He explained that the initiative followed the signing of an economic partnership framework between Nigeria and China on March 26. The framework is aimed at strengthening bilateral trade and investment.
According to him, the policy would particularly benefit key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing by giving them improved access to the vast Chinese market.
