The Central Bank of Nigeria, acting on behalf of the Debt Management Office, is offering N450 billion in Nigerian Treasury Bills at the primary market auction holding today, Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the second auction of the fourth quarter.

The auction circular shows that the offer is made up of N50 billion each in 91-day and 182-day bills, and N350 billion in 364-day bills, with settlement scheduled for Thursday, October 15.

The one-year tenor makes up 77.78 per cent of the offer, reflecting its dominant share in the government’s Q4 Treasury bill issuance programme.

The N450 billion auction is the smallest planned offer in the Q4 2026 NTB issuance calendar analysed by Nairametrics. It is also lower than the N500 billion that was the smallest single auction offer in the third-quarter programme.

Only N80.84 billion in Treasury bills is due to mature at settlement on October 15, which makes the advertised offer about 5.57 times the maturing amount.

The 91-day tenor has an offer size of N50 billion, and the 182-day tenor also carries an offer size of N50 billion.

The 364-day tenor accounts for N350 billion, representing 77.78% of the total offer.

If the full N450 billion is allotted, it would imply a net liquidity withdrawal of about N369.16 billion after maturities are taken into account.

The figures show that the government is offering substantially more Treasury bills than the amount due to mature at the auction’s settlement.

However, the advertised offer is not the final allotment, and the actual liquidity impact will depend on the amount sold. Recent auctions have also shown that allotments can exceed the initial offer size, meaning the eventual withdrawal could differ from the amount implied by the calendar.

Demand for the 364-day Treasury bill remained strong at the quarter’s opening auction on October 7, when the DMO allotted N968.47 billion against a N900 billion offer. The one-year stop rate fell to 15.85%, from 15.89% at the preceding auction.

The four-basis-point decline put the 364-day stop rate 185 basis points below its third-quarter peak of 17.70%, recorded on July 8.

Investors submitted N1.683 trillion in bids for the 364-day bill against an advertised offer of N700 billion, which is approximately 2.4 times the offer.

The 91-day bill attracted N39.42 billion in subscriptions against N100 billion offered, with N38.55 billion allotted at an unchanged stop rate of 15.50%.

Combined bids for the 91-day and 182-day bills stood at N86.29 billion against N200 billion offered.

With N705.73 billion in maturities at settlement, the N968.47 billion allotment implied a net liquidity withdrawal of N262.74 billion.

The figures show a clear difference in investor demand across the three tenors, with the one-year instrument drawing the strongest subscriptions.

Analysts expect demand for longer-duration naira assets to stay firm, although the direction of stop rates depends on market conditions today. Analysts at AAG Capital Limited said ample liquidity could support speculative funding at the auction, but noted that the recent bond market sell-off could put upward pressure on sovereign borrowing rates.

According to the Q4 calendar, the October issuance programme is built around three scheduled auctions, with N2.15 trillion in planned offers for the month. These comprise N900 billion on October 7, N450 billion on October 14 and N800 billion scheduled for October 28. The calendar has no auction offer for October 21, when N392.79 billion in Treasury bills is expected to mature.

Total Q4 Treasury bill offers are projected at N5.40 trillion against approximately N5.429 trillion in maturities.

However, analysts at AAG Capital Limited stated that the Q4 plan was adjusted to “up to N5.75 trillion,” a figure Nairametrics could not verify at the time of filing this report.

The 364-day tenor accounts for N4.10 trillion, or 75.93% of the quarter’s planned offers.

In Q3, the CBN raised N8.14 trillion against a planned N5.80 trillion, with the 364-day tenor driving most of the allotments.

The market is also awaiting the next inflation data from the statistics office on Friday.

The Q4 calendar therefore keeps a strong emphasis on one-year Treasury bills. Actual allotments could differ from the issuance calendar, as the October 7 auction showed.

Investors can access NTBs through banks and licensed investment platforms, subject to their respective minimum bid requirements. The auction will provide another indication of investor demand across tenors, and of whether the 15.89 per cent stop rate for the one-year tenor declines further or reverses.