The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection to an average of 4.1 per cent in 2026. In October 2025, the World Bank projected Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
The bank also downgraded the projection for 2027 to 4.2 per cent, while the growth forecast for 2028 was put at 4.3 per cent.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled ‘Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,’ the global lender said the growth forecast is driven by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment. The bank said the services sector, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate, will remain the primary engine of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly due to structural constraints.
The institution also said inflation is projected to decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further ease to 10.7 percent by 2028, reflecting the lagged impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.
“Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” the World Bank stated.
The global lender said economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025. Nigeria’s economy is resilient and set to grow in the first half of 2026 despite the Iran war, with rising fuel costs and persistently high inflation risking squeezing incomes and slowing poverty reduction. The World Bank forecasts economic growth of about 4.2% for 2026 and urged authorities to save windfalls from higher oil prices, keep monetary policy tight, and avoid blanket subsidies to rein in inflation.
