Nigeria’s crude oil exports are expected to drop by around 14 per cent in March, with planned shipments for four major grades falling to approximately 793,000 barrels per day.

The estimate is drawn from preliminary crude loading schedules reported by Reuters.

The data underscore persistent volatility in Nigeria’s export flows, even as the country continues efforts to stabilise production and increase foreign exchange earnings.

The projected March loadings of roughly 793,000 bpd mark a decline from February’s scheduled exports of about 922,000 bpd, reflecting a significant month-on-month drop largely due to steep reductions in two major offshore grades.

Preliminary loading schedules indicate mixed trends across Nigeria’s four main crude grades.

While some grades are seeing modest increases, these gains are outweighed by sharp declines in others, pointing to overall weaker export volumes in March.

Qua Iboe shipments are expected to rise to around 184,000 bpd in March, up from about 170,000 bpd in February.

Bonny Light exports are projected to rise slightly to about 282,000 bpd, up from roughly 269,000 bpd in February.

Bonga crude loadings, however, are set to drop sharply to around 61,000 bpd from 139,000 bpd last month.

Forcados shipments are also expected to fall to approximately 266,000 bpd, down from 344,000 bpd in February.

While Qua Iboe and Bonny Light show modest gains, the steep declines in Bonga and the Forcados more than offset these increases, driving the overall March export volume lower.

Nigeria’s crude oil loading schedules often fluctuate significantly from month to month, driven by a combination of operational, technical, and market-related factors.

Long-standing security issues and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta have also contributed to uneven production and exports. Pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and delays in repair work have at times disrupted flows from key production hubs supplying export terminals.

Market dynamics further influence export patterns, as refiners adjust their demand based on pricing, quality differences, and global supply conditions.

This means that while some Nigerian grades may see higher demand in certain months, others experience reduced offtake.