Global coal production is projected to move into a period of structural decline after reaching a historic plateau, according to the latest report released on Wednesday by the International Energy Agency.

The agency noted that after attaining record output levels, global coal production is expected to fall back to 8.6 billion tonnes by 2030, reflecting a gradual but decisive shift in the global energy landscape.

According to the report, 2024 marked a pivotal year for the coal industry, with worldwide production climbing to an unprecedented 9.1 billion tonnes, the highest level ever recorded.

The IEA attributed this surge largely to China, India and Indonesia, countries where coal continues to play a central role in ensuring energy security and meeting domestic power needs.

“In 2024, global coal production hit a record high of 9.1 billion tonnes, largely driven by increased output in China, India and Indonesia,” the IEA stated, adding that China alone sustained an enormous output of 4,666 million tonnes (Mt) to stabilise its domestic electricity grid.

The agency projected that 2025 would represent the “high-water mark” for the global coal industry, signalling the start of a sustained downturn later in the decade.

Global coal production is forecast to remain broadly flat at 9,111 Mt in 2025, a level the IEA described as the final peak before output begins to decline.

“This marks a plateau before entering an expected downturn later in the decade,” the report noted.

The anticipated stagnation in production is linked to weaker demand growth and declining coal prices, particularly among major exporting countries.

The IEA observed that “lower prices and weaker import demand weighed on supply” in key export hubs such as Indonesia and Australia.

The report also highlighted diverging production trends across regions. In the European Union, coal output continues its long-term structural decline, stabilising at 242 Mt and remaining largely centred on lignite production.

In contrast, the United States recorded an unexpected, though likely temporary, increase in coal output during the period under review.

“In contrast to previous years, US output has risen to 473 Mt, driven by policy measures that improved mine economics and supported unit availability,” the IEA reported.

Despite this short-term resilience, the agency warned that US coal production is expected to decline over time due to “phase-out schedules and cost pressures” as the decade advances.

By 2030, the IEA estimates that global coal production will decline by roughly 500 million tonnes compared with current levels.

While India is expected to remain the “main source of incremental growth” through expanded commercial and captive mining operations, the agency stressed that this growth will be insufficient to counterbalance declines elsewhere.

“The reduction is led by China, although it comes with uncertainties, followed by smaller but more certain declines in the European Union and the United States.

“Overall, global supply trends lower during the second half of the decade,” the agency concluded.

The report further explained that the sharp increase in coal production following the energy supply shocks of 2021 was largely driven by energy security concerns.

However, it noted that the global coal market is now recalibrating as rising domestic demand in emerging economies is increasingly overtaken by shrinking export opportunities and a worldwide transition toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources.

Global coal output to fall after historic 2024 peak — IEA