Airlines are expected to collectively earn a net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025, according to forecasts by the International Air Transport Association.

Despite these record earnings, the global airline industry’s net profit margin is projected to hold steady at 3.9 per cent, while net profit per passenger is forecast at $7.90—below the 2023 high of $8.50 and unchanged from 2025.

“Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 per cent net margin and a $41bn profit in 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General. “That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces, rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens, among others.

“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” he added.

Operating profit is projected to increase to $72.8 billion in 2026, up from $67.0 billion in 2025, reflecting a net operating margin of 6.9 per cent compared with 6.6 per cent the previous year.

Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to remain steady at 6.8 per cent, unchanged from 2025.

However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) highlighted that ROIC will still fall short of the estimated weighted average cost of capital of 8.2 per cent in 2026, despite stronger operating performance and ongoing deleveraging.

“Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies.

“They stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly four per cent of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger.

“Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we could rebalance value chain profitability, reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies,” Walsh said.

Total industry revenues are expected to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026, up 4.5 per cent from the $1.008 trillion projected for 2025.

Airlines are also forecast to achieve record load factors, filling 83.8 per cent of seats globally in 2026.

Passenger traffic is set to rise 4.4 per cent year-on-year to 5.2 billion, while cargo volumes are projected to grow 2.4 per cent to 71.6 million tonnes.

IATA noted that air cargo continues to be a standout performer, exceeding earlier gloomy forecasts amid shifting global trade dynamics.

“As trade flows adapt to a protectionist US tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade, buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments,” Walsh added.

“Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and centre as the global economy adjusts to new realities.”