Nigeria’s aviation sector recorded a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by just 2.88 per cent as passengers continued to face elevated airfares.
This figure was revealed in the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025 showed that nominal year-on-year growth in air transport plunged from 57.21 per cent in the first quarter and 30.60 per cent in the second quarter to 2.88 per cent.
However, sector output still increased in value terms. Air transport GDP at current basic prices rose to N80.98bn in Q3 2025, up from N78.71bn in the corresponding period of 2024.
In Q1, output jumped from N67.28bn in 2024 to N105.77bn in 2025, while Q2 recorded an increase from N28.59bn to N37.35bn over the same period.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis of 2025 highlights the aviation industry’s volatility. Sector output contracted by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, falling from N105.77bn to N37.35bn.
This was followed by a sharp rebound in Q3, when output more than doubled, rising by roughly 116.8 per cent to N80.98bn.
However, because growth is measured against the corresponding quarters of 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate continued to decline, easing from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and further to 2.88 per cent in Q3.
The figures also indicate that air transport’s contribution to the broader economy remains marginal and slightly below last year’s level.
The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, down from 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024. Its share was higher at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 before dropping to 0.04 per cent in Q2.
However, because growth is measured against the corresponding quarters of 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate continued to decline, easing from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and further to 2.88 per cent in Q3.
The figures also indicate that air transport’s contribution to the broader economy remains marginal and slightly below last year’s level. The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, down from 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024. Its share was higher at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 before dropping to 0.04 per cent in Q2.
By contrast, the broader economy maintained nominal growth. GDP at current basic prices increased from N96.16tn in Q3 2024 to N113.59tn in Q3 2025.
On a quarterly basis, total output rose from N79.51tn to N94.05tn between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, and from N84.48tn to N100.73tn between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.
Real growth data for aviation reinforce the picture of a sector emerging from steep contraction into modest expansion, albeit with slowing momentum.
Air transport recorded negative real GDP growth throughout 2024, at –9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2, and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, performance improved, with growth edging close to zero at –0.81 per cent in Q1 before turning positive at 6.34 per cent in Q2 and moderating to 1.60 per cent in Q3.
The NBS data point to an aviation industry that began 2025 with exceptionally strong year-on-year nominal growth but experienced a sharp deceleration to just 2.88 per cent by the third quarter, even as output levels and its contribution to GDP remained above those of 2024.
The slowdown coincides with persistently high airfares faced by travellers, prompting concerns about the sector’s ability to sustain growth in the face of rising costs and weakening demand.
