Airlines are increasingly burdened by the rise in global conflict zones, as threats such as missiles, drones, airspace shutdowns, GPS spoofing, and the downing of a passenger jet disrupt operations.

Carriers face mounting costs and lost market share due to last-minute flight cancellations and costly re-routings.

To uphold safety and reliability, the aviation industry is ramping up investments in data analytics and security planning, according to Reuters.

“Flight planning in this kind of environment is extremely difficult … The airline industry thrives on predictability, and the absence of this will always drive greater cost,” said Guy Murray, who leads aviation security at European carrier TUI Airline.

With growing airspace closures over Russia and Ukraine, across the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and in parts of Africa, airlines are facing a shrinking pool of viable flight routes.

“Compared to five years ago, more than half of the countries being overflown on a typical Europe-Asia flight would now need to be carefully reviewed before each flight,” said Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares flight risk information.

Since October 2023, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has brought commercial flights into close proximity with sudden drone and missile strikes—some reportedly visible to pilots and passengers. In Russia, drone activity now routinely forces temporary airport closures, including in Moscow.

At the same time, incidents of GPS spoofing and signal jamming are rising around global conflict zones, disrupting flight navigation.

Tensions between India and Pakistan last month also triggered reciprocal airspace bans, further restricting flight paths for airlines.

“Airspace should not be used as a retaliatory tool, but it is,” said Nick Careen, Senior Vice President for Operations, Safety and Security at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), speaking to reporters during the association’s annual meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday.

In December, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight was accidentally shot down by Russian air defences over Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, according to Azerbaijan’s president and Reuters sources.

Just two months earlier, a cargo plane was brought down in Sudan, resulting in five fatalities.

Since 2001, six commercial aircraft have been shot down, with three additional near-miss incidents, according to aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions.

In February, IATA identified conflict zone-related accidents and incidents as a leading threat to aviation safety, stressing the need for immediate international collaboration to tackle the issue.

Pilots and flight attendants are increasingly concerned about how the unpredictable and changing risks could affect their safety.

“IATA says airlines should decide if it’s safe to fly over conflict zones, not regulators. But history shows commercial pressures can cloud those decisions,” said Paul Reuter, vice president of the European Cockpit Association, which represents pilots.

Flight crews generally have the right to refuse a trip if they have safety concerns about the airspace, whether due to weather or conflict zones, said IATA security head Nick Careen.