The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has warned that the 2027 general elections could pose the most serious threat yet to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, cautioning that reform fatigue and policy reversals often emerge as political cycles draw closer.

The warning was issued during the presentation of the NESG 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, where the group highlighted the risks reforms typically face during election periods.

Speaking at the event, NESG Chief Economist, Dr Omishakin, said several countries that achieved early gains after economic stabilisation later lost those gains due to weak consolidation, especially during election cycles.

“Election cycles are usually the most difficult moments for reforms,” Omishakin said.

“What we have seen across several countries is that once the immediate crisis passes, governments tend to relax.

When elections approach, discipline weakens, policies become inconsistent and the gains begin to reverse.”

According to him, Nigeria is currently in a critical consolidation phase following stabilisation reforms implemented between 2023 and 2025, making 2026 a decisive year for securing progress ahead of the 2027 polls.

He said Nigeria is no longer in an acute crisis phase, but warned that this transition itself carries significant risks if reforms are not firmly entrenched.

“We are no longer in crisis, and that is exactly why this moment is risky.

Countries often relapse after stabilisation because they underestimate the importance of consolidation. If we get distracted by short-term political considerations in 2027, we may not sustain what we have achieved.”

Omishakin noted that Nigeria’s current real GDP growth rate of about 3.8 per cent remains below the 5.5 to 6 per cent required to achieve meaningful economic transformation.

He warned that failure to deepen reforms could cause growth to fall back to the 2 to 3 per cent range recorded in previous years.

“Our projection for 2026 is about 5.5 per cent growth, but this is conditional,” he said.

“It depends entirely on whether reforms are sustained through the political cycle. Without discipline, the economy could easily slide back.”

He stressed that anchoring reforms ahead of the elections would require a strong commitment to macroeconomic discipline, including a clear path towards single-digit inflation, sustained exchange rate stability and foreign reserves of about 50 billion dollars.

“Single-digit inflation is not just a number. It is a signal that consolidation is real and durable. It shows that the economy has moved beyond crisis management to long-term stability,” he stated.

On sectoral performance, Omishakin warned that weak growth in agriculture and manufacturing could undermine reform outcomes if urgent action is not taken.

“Manufacturing is currently growing at about 1.5 per cent, agriculture at around 2 per cent. These numbers are not consistent with consolidation. You cannot sustain reforms without jobs, without productivity, and without inclusion. Election pressures make this even more challenging,” he added.

Earlier, the Chairman of the NESG, Mr Niyi Yusuf, also cautioned policymakers against succumbing to short-term populist measures as political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Stabilisation is only the first step,” Yusuf said.

“The real work is consolidation, and that work must continue even as we approach the 2027 elections.”